Just Win Baby . . .

At some point in the first quarter of last weeks Raiders match against the Texans I turned to the ticket holders sitting next to me and commented that I didn't think I had ever seen such a poorly attended home game.  I've attended most Raider games (in Oakland) since 1979.

In fact, I was right.  32,218 - the lowest non-strike home attendance since 1967.

I was really surprised.  After all, the Raiders have made definite strides to becoming a more competitive team.  I felt we had a really good chance to beat a very good Texan's team (see last week's blog), and be sitting at 2-2 going into today's game.  The Raiders did just about everything they needed to do - except win it at the end.

This week the Raiders have a slew of injuries that are likely to cause problems, besides having to deal with the way the Chargers are playing.  Darren McFadden (RB), Michael Bennett (RB), Robert Gallery (RB), Travis Goethel (LB), John Henderson (DT), Thomas Howard (LB), Chaz Shilens (WR). 

Some of these guys we've been playing without already, and have been competitive, and we ought not to miss them any more than we already have.  There are key players that have nagging injuries that have not ruled them out, such as Zach Miller (hip), Bruce Gradkowski (shoulder).

The real issue this week, I believe, is the injuries are starting to tap into the depth of talent on the team.  We are looking at Trevor Scott to play at linebacker, for example.  While he did alright during pre-season in that role, he did watch some big gainers by running backs go right through a gap he ought to have filled.  Most of the offensive line starters are fighting injury as well.

Perhaps I'm naive here, but I am going to the game feeling they can win this game.  My expectations are for an 8-8 season, so I am not too dismayed that they loose some.  So far, only one game was an outright loss - no chance - against the Titans. 

The Raiders have been in the drivers seat at the end of the game the last two weeks.

What concerns me is that the Raiders beat themselves both weeks.  It's what Marty Schottenheimer always said - "The Raiders will find a way to beat themselves."

I can't stand that guy.

Still, I love the way the Raiders have improved.  Today is a big match up with San Diego who stumbled early, but seem to be finding their stride. 

To have four losses this early in the season will be tough.  That 8-8 season?  My concern is that Schottenheimer may be right again.  As much as things change, they remain the same . . .

Just win baby.

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Raiders Good Enough?

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Correction: The following incorrectly reports that Darren McFadden instead of Walter McFadden would be out for the game.

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Tomorrow, Sunday October 3rd, the Oakland Raiders meet the Houston Texans for the 6th time since first playing against each other in 2004.

It hasn't been a very pleasant relationship for the Raiders. In fact, with only one win and four losses to the Texans, there is only one team with a better winning percentage against the Raiders (Baltimore Ravens). They certainly are not strangers to each other.

This will be the first game of the season that the Raiders have really faced a strong opponent. Ranked #4 in offense (total yards), the Texans will go up against the #2 defense (total yards) in the Raiders. But the numbers here are misleading. A good example of how statistics don't match results.

The defense is ranked 2nd based on yard allowed per game. Both pass and run defenses show up pretty good on the books. We've seen the Raiders do a pretty good job against some of the leagues top runners. Remember that against the Rams Johnson, over half of his total yards came on one play.

Nnamdi Asomugha shut down the Cardinals Fitzgerald to just one catch while against him. Unfortunately Fitzgerald's second catch was for a touchdown when the Raiders were in a zone coverage. Still, I like the Raiders approach this year of moving Nnamdi to cover the opponents best receiver regardless of where that receiver lines up.

Unfortunately, the points allowed put the defense at 24th in the league, while the Texans show up as 6th. The Raiders have been giving up 25.3 points per game average, and the Texans have been scoring 25.7.

But enough with the statistics. After just three weeks into the season, those are just indicators, and it is still too early to tell just how good teams are. Here is my gut check on the match tomorrow for the Raiders.

First of all, the Raiders must clean up special teams play tomorrow. No big run backs, and especially no scores. Janikowski needs to find his form. With 5 missed field goals so far this season, it's easy to say his form has gone missing. Granted he missed one at 58 yards, but I'm sure anyone who is following this season's football knows what happened last week at the end of the game. My confidence level here - LOW.

Defense needs to continue to play solid against the run. The line has done a pretty good job. In my opinion it is the linebackers that have missed closing the gaps that have allowed the big gainers. Richard Seymour is questionable with a hamstring injury, but the Raiders have still shown up well without him in the game. My confidence level here - GOOD

Defense against the pass must improve for this game. Andre Johnson is their top receiver, but he has only 255 yards out of 782 passing yards. Nnamdi won't be able to do it all himself. I worry particularly about Stanford Routt, Chris Johnson (who is listed as questionable for the game anyway), and safeties Tyvon Branch and Michael Huff. Both safeties have shown a tendency to get out of position, though Huff has looked pretty good for most of this season. If I were facing the Raiders, I would through nearly every pass against Routt. He makes some good plays, but not enough for my liking. Hopefully the Raiders can bring some pressure and disrupt the passing game, and our linebackers cover well. I think if we get beat, it will be in the air. It won't be against Nnamdi. My confidence level - OPTIMISTIC.

Offense will have a new look. Why? Because McFadden is out. Yep. His hamstring. He showed us his capability, but simply cannot get past the durability issue. We will see Michael Bush tomorrow, and I like what he can do. He just doesn't have the burst speed or the moves.  My confidence level - GOOD

Passing tomorrow is looking shaky as well. Both Murphy and Heyward-Bey have injuries (Murphy - collarbone, Heyward-Bey - groin). We will probably see more Higgins tomorrow. But I still like what we've been doing, I believe Gradkowski should be able to find receivers, so it will be up to the line to provide protection for the passing game, and to continue to open lanes for the run. My confidence level - HIGH

The bottom line? Eliminate mistakes, have a good game against the pass, and the Raiders ought to pull an upset, and be 2-2 on Monday.  My confidence level - GOOD

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Photo Credits:
All photographs from The Oakland Raiders website 
Nnamdi Asomugha photo from "2010 Week 3" photo collection

The Raiders Adjust

Wow.  A lot has happened with the Raiders in just two weeks of football!

Let me say right off the top, that I still believe this team has the best chance of turning around the loosing record they have established over the past seven seasons. 

The press has made a lot of the quarterback change, and of the fact that Hue Jackson came out on Wednesday and said that he had gone to Tom Cable at half-time and told Cable that he wanted to switch quarterbacks.  The Oakland/East Bay papers wanted to make this out to be a coaching controversy.   When you watch the press conference, which is where the reporters get most of their "news" it's hard to come away with the same conclusion.  Cable and Jackson were on the same page, and Cable made the call to switch.  He could have said no, but he didn't.  Unreported in the paper was Cable's statement that he and Jackson had spoken about making a switch during the game earlier in the week if they weren't seeing the kind of productivity they were looking for.

So they switched to Gradkowski.  Great!  Both Campbell and Gradkowski are talented leaders, but with very different styles.  It appears, from what we saw last year and this, that Gradkowski brings a lot of energy and talent to the field.  The Raiders have three very good QB's, so that's a real plus. 

Gradkowski has demonstrated that he could find the "missing" receivers.  Heyward-Bey and Murphy had each caught only one pass in the first half against the Rams, but both got five (yes, each!) after Gradkowski came in, including finding Murphy for a TD in a Kenny Stabler manner as he threw falling back off his back foot.  He also found the seam with passes to Murphy and tight end Zack Miller.  Nice.

One of the local writers, Monte Poole made the case that Campbell should have been given the start this week because to do otherwise makes Cable look "desperate" to keep his job.  He cited other apparent reasons, but I can only assume he really has no clue about talent, nor does he really pay attention to the sideline action.  The move to Gradkowski could have just as easily come at the beginning of the season, but Campbell hadn't really lost the position - just yet.

Gradkowski, win or loose, has been dynamic on the field.  I have felt like the Raiders had a chance with him in there.  In prior posts, I noted how he exhibited leadership in the huddle and on the sideline.  Against the Rams he was all over talking to players and handing out high-fives and pats on the back.  The Raiders need leaders, and have always responded to the coach or leader who is more energized than stoic.  Remember Gruden?  How about how excited Madden used to get? 

Speaking of Gruden . . . he brought in a guy who wasn't supposed to be a starter.  He brought us a proven backup quarterback.  A journeyman.  In Oakland, all that guy did was win.  Gruden brought him in because he had talent, and he had a fire in his belly.  Rich Gannon was one of the best quarterbacks the Raiders have had, and was certainly a leader. 

Gradkowski may not be a Stabler, or a Gannon, but he has a lot of the same characteristics.  And he was drafted by Jon Gruden.  I suspect Gruden loved that fire in his belly, and recognized that he has talent.  But once you get that label of a "backup quarterback" it's hard to shake.

We'll see what Gradkowski can do.  I believe he now has the best opportunity as a starting quarterback of his career, playing for a team that can win. 

Looking at the offensive line, for a moment, I thought that Daniel Loper had a great game as he filled in for injured Robert Gallery.  With all the other great things that happened last week, the press has largely overlooked his play.  The offensive line is a concern I've had, but I liked the way Loper did not over commit on his blocks (I watched him quite a bit during the game, and on replays of the Titans game).  He was better able to pick up a blitzing linebacker or corner, and to help out either Henderson or Veldheer at the left tackle position if they needed it inside.  He was constantly looking around to lay a block where needed. Loper also seemed to be able to move the defender at the right time, and to the proper side to create a gap for McFadden. Right now if it was up to me, Loper would stay as my starting Guard.  I'd let Gallery heal and see how the team plays with Loper.  If all is good - keep him starting.

McFadden has really stepped into his role, and shown without a doubt that he can play in this league.  I'll still hold onto my worry for his durability, but if he holds up, and the line continues to clear out gaps for him to run through, that ought to open up the passing game.  The Raiders could really have an interesting season.

Week One against the Titans was one of those odd games.  Statistically the Raiders were actually not that awful, but it sure looked it while watching the game.  But take away the big play - 76 yard run for TD by Johnson, the 56 yard pass to Washington (one of three long passes that Chris Johnson couldn't seem to defend that day), and the fumble recovery in the final two minutes of the first quarter that resulted in a field goal, you have a 21-13 game instead of a blow-out, and the stats look better.  Those all seem to be things the Raiders are addressing . . . we'll see how successfully.

There were still a lot of problems - Corner Chris Johnson had an awful game, his worst as a Raider that I recall, and frankly, Gallery and Henderson were both problems on the left, and watching the replay and focusing strictly on the offensive line, I thought Langston Walker really struggled as well (probably should have been at LEAST three holding calls against him).  The left side tightened up in the second half (because Gallery was out?).

The Rams were a team the Raiders should have beaten, and did.  I think they are a team in transition like the Raiders, and they played better than expected.  Stupid mistakes on their part late in the game helped the Raiders hold on to the ball and the win. 

Defensively the Raiders played well against the Rams, and poorly against the Titans.  Nothing earth shaking in that statement.  But they actually did quite well against the Titans Johnson, who ran for 142 yards, but had 76 of those on one run in the first half, had 36 yards on 12 carries the rest of the first half, and had only 30 yards on 14 carries in the second half. 

It would appear the Raiders have the ability to shut down the top runners. 

But the big play continues to haunt them.  My take on that one big run by Johnson was that McClain over played his man and actually pushed him too far outside, and created the gap that Johnson exploited.  The question is - where were the safeties?  This too has been a common problem for the Raiders.  Can they fix it?

So, tomorrow, Sunday the 26th of September the Raiders take on the Arizona Cardinals. 

I think the Raiders have a good chance of being 2-1 on Monday!  Go Bruce!  Go Raiders!

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Photo Credits:
All photographs "2010 Week 2"  from The Oakland Raiders website
http://www.raiders.com/media-vault/photo-gallery/2010-Week-2/afaf624b-b1de-4a95-a0cb-5b408c8444df

Is there Hope for the Raiders in 2010?

In short – yes.  Definitely.

I attended both Raider preseason home games and as I reported earlier, I was keen to see how the Raiders leadership exhibited that leadership.  We’ve heard the praise, and the promise of being ready to make the leap to contender in past years, only to find the product on the field winds up looking the same as every other year.  Three and out.  Get to the red zone, and stall.  Kick the field goal.  Play calling that leaves you scratching your head.  Plays that seem to have no imagination, or worse, plays that appear to have been designed without consideration to the talent and skills of the players we have!

We’ve seen fast receivers out run the throws.  Throws that out distance the runner.  Quarterbacks that wait until the receiver gets open, and THEN he throws . . . too late! No faith (or ability) in timing plays!   We’ve seen the quarterback have to scramble, and the receiver just float & waive for the ball, or runs with the QB (while covered) instead of come back or move to create space for a pass.

We’ve see the need for one yard, or a half yard, and we run a sweep.  We’ve seen the need for fifteen yards, and we throw a draw underneath for an eight yard gain, or worse.

All too often we’ve been left scratching our heads wondering just what the heck is going on?!

Oh yea, and we’ve found ourselves booing – AT the RAIDERS - something that used to be unheard of in Oakland in those good ol’ days.

Ah, but I have found some glimmer of hope, and I want to share my thoughts and observations with you.

Team
I remember just a few short years ago when JaMarcus Russell came to the Raiders.  While the game was going on (and the Raiders getting hammered) he was laughing and chatting it up with Culpepper, and others.  They’d be watching the crowd, or the Raiderettes, just having a great time.  Many of the other players were hanging out on the bench, not paying attention.  They looked to just be having conversations.  Some players were paying attention to the game pretty much full time, but I felt that there just didn’t seem to be any intensity about the game that was being played.  That attitude started in preseason, and went right on happening during the regular season.  

The team I observed the past two weeks was made over.  Transformed.  Involved.  And for the most part WATCHING THE GAME!  What a concept.

Players appear to be talking about the game when they are on the sideline.  When the offense would come off the field, they would huddle up with their coaches, review the photo’s from upstairs, and all be talking with each other afterwards.  It was apparent they were all engaged, and talking about what they did, or maybe what they could do better.  They were definitely at the office.

In the final preseason game against the Seahawks there were not many starters on the field.  But I saw many of them talking to those who were when they came off the field.

Leadership
Wow.   What a difference in leadership I thought I saw taking place on the field this year.

The quarterback position is pretty amazing.  The Raiders appear to have three quarterbacks who are leaders.  Why do I say that?  Because of the way they involve themselves with their teammates. 

I remember watching Rich Gannon right away in the huddle, talking with the guys, walking up to them and tapping them on the shoulder or chest and having a word with them.  On the sideline I’d watch him walk around to different linemen and have a word with them, and then walk over to running back or a receiver, and chat with that guy for a few minutes.  He clearly was working to make each of them and the team, better.  I thought to myself, “That guy’s a leader.”  I was fortunate enough to be invited to a Raider post game dinner later in the season, and my thought was validated when I noticed Gannon walking the entire room over at the Hilton after the dinner talking with folks at every single table (including ours). 

I can’t say what’s going on at the post game dinner now, but I saw Campbell walking up to and right into the huddle, and start talking to the guys.  I saw him on the sideline walking back and forth to different players, talking with them and being animated – cool, but animated.  And the same thing happened with Gradkowski in the huddle and on the sideline, or after a big play.  To a lesser degree I saw Boller doing it as well, though he did not have as much play time during the two games I was able to attend, so I have a little less on which to base my observations.  But Boller was always involved with the other quarterbacks, and was engaged in conversation often with other offensive players.

Asomugha never played a down against the Seahawks, but he was on the sideline watching the whole game, and I saw him talking to guys on the field, in the huddle during the timeouts, and talking with Johnson, Brown (Steve), Huff, and others on the sideline when they came off.  Good stuff.

Seymour was present on the sideline the whole game as well, and I saw him often on the field during the timeouts as well, talking with the defensive linemen, or talking with them as they came off the field.

And that’s from the players.  The coaches appear to be participating well, and have the players engaged on the sideline.  Not too sure about what’s happened on special teams, but it could be the players rather than the coach.  I like what I see for the most part from Cable as well.  He seems to be letting his assistants coach.  He participates some in the timeout huddles, has a few words on the headset or directly with a coach or some players.  Most of the direct player contact seems to be the “atta boy” type of communication.

Play Calling

I don’t really know what the proper route term is, but in the old days the Raider receivers would often drive off the line and run hard, only to suddenly stop, and come back a few yards and have the ball show up perfectly on time for a reception.  Need 6 yards?  Run 10, stop & drop, get 7 yards and the first down.   Or they would drive up, fake inside, and turn outside and have the ball show up near the sideline.   I’m seeing these kinds of plays again, and I’m thrilled.  They are simple, effective, and we are running them for needed yards.  Oh, and those routes that create space in the middle for the tight-end to run into are nice to see as well!

We’ve also seen the quarterback sneak work pretty effectively.  Don’t know where that play has been for the past 6 or 7 years, but it seems to have been rediscovered here in Oakland. 

Questions Remain
The running game still seems to need help.  Healthy players would be nice!  Bush fractures his thumb at the lower joint, and McFadden . . . well, we haven’t seen really him at all this preseason due to injuries, and he’s been absent much of his career with us so far.  I didn’t really think the plays called for him against the 49ers were that great to show off his talents, but then he did nothing with his chances either.  A hard call, but from what I’ve seen of his durability and his power to break tackles, I have to go with doubt for now.  

I don’t know if the offensive line changes with Walker and Veldheer will make the difference on run blocking or not, but help is needed from the O’line, and a back is needed that can find the gaps quickly and with power.  My gut feel is that we will need to continue to upgrade the offensive line if we really want to win the Division, and definitely if we expect to even go to the Super Bowl.  A good running back  can run like a great one if he has an offensive line that can make the blocks that open the gaps for him.

Receivers seem to be improving.  I have liked what I saw of Heyward-Bey, and I still like Higgins.  He shows up when you give him chances.  Murphy seems to be a bit inconsistent, but again, keep giving him chances.  Will we ever see Schilens again?  I firmly believe the receivers will suddenly improve in 2010, because they have a quarterback that knows how to read the game and deliver the ball to them.  Couple that with better, simple routes, and we have a foundation for success.

Special Teams seemed solid for two weeks, and then seemed porous.  What’s up with that?  All I can say is it makes me nervous when the Raiders have to kick away the ball.

Run defense seemed a bit questionable in the last two games of the preseason, but we were playing around with players and positions, and Seymour was given some time off, so we will have to see who we really are on defense.  My feeling is that we will see a significant improvement, with the occasional long gain as a linebacker misses a gap assignment.  That one long run will spoil the run defense stats, but not the overall effectiveness of the run defense.

Healthy players during the season are always the concern in football.  If the Raiders can stay relatively healthy at their starting positions, and especially with key “star” players, they have a great chance to mark 2010 as the end of the record setting longest run in NFL history of most seasons with 11 or more losses (currently at 7 consecutive seasons), the greatest blot on the Raiders record and mockery to the motto of Pride and Poise.

Yes Virginia, there IS hope for the Raiders in 2010.

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Photo Credits: In order displayed
1. Raiders Shield - Raiders website wallpapers - http://www.raiders.com/fans/wallpapers.html
2. Raiders vs. Seattle Seahawks Sept. 2, 2010 -  Bleacher Report website - (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images) - http://bleacherreport.com/gallery/Seattle+Seahawks+v+Oakland+Raiders?d=2010-09-02&permalink=oakland-raiders
3. Gradkowski at Aug 24th Practice - Raiders Media Vault - Raiders website - http://www.raiders.com/media-vault/photo-gallery/Aug-24th-Practice/f86ea56c-6a39-4248-8b29-8ecd15e64ce5
4. Tom Cable observes Raiders vs. Seahawks Sept. 2, 2010 - Bleacher Report website - (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images) - http://bleacherreport.com/gallery/Seattle+Seahawks+v+Oakland+Raiders?d=2010-09-02&permalink=oakland-raiders
5. Jason Campbell - Raiders website Roster photo - http://www.raiders.com/team/roster/Jason-Campbell/d759a61c-ea28-46eb-900b-f5fc001be5af