Correction: The following incorrectly reports that Darren McFadden instead of Walter McFadden would be out for the game.
Tomorrow, Sunday October 3rd, the Oakland Raiders meet the Houston Texans for the 6th time since first playing against each other in 2004.
It hasn't been a very pleasant relationship for the Raiders. In fact, with only one win and four losses to the Texans, there is only one team with a better winning percentage against the Raiders (Baltimore Ravens). They certainly are not strangers to each other.
This will be the first game of the season that the Raiders have really faced a strong opponent. Ranked #4 in offense (total yards), the Texans will go up against the #2 defense (total yards) in the Raiders. But the numbers here are misleading. A good example of how statistics don't match results.
The defense is ranked 2nd based on yard allowed per game. Both pass and run defenses show up pretty good on the books. We've seen the Raiders do a pretty good job against some of the leagues top runners. Remember that against the Rams Johnson, over half of his total yards came on one play.
Unfortunately, the points allowed put the defense at 24th in the league, while the Texans show up as 6th. The Raiders have been giving up 25.3 points per game average, and the Texans have been scoring 25.7.
But enough with the statistics. After just three weeks into the season, those are just indicators, and it is still too early to tell just how good teams are. Here is my gut check on the match tomorrow for the Raiders.
First of all, the Raiders must clean up special teams play tomorrow. No big run backs, and especially no scores. Janikowski needs to find his form. With 5 missed field goals so far this season, it's easy to say his form has gone missing. Granted he missed one at 58 yards, but I'm sure anyone who is following this season's football knows what happened last week at the end of the game. My confidence level here - LOW.
Defense needs to continue to play solid against the run. The line has done a pretty good job. In my opinion it is the linebackers that have missed closing the gaps that have allowed the big gainers. Richard Seymour is questionable with a hamstring injury, but the Raiders have still shown up well without him in the game. My confidence level here - GOOD
Defense against the pass must improve for this game. Andre Johnson is their top receiver, but he has only 255 yards out of 782 passing yards. Nnamdi won't be able to do it all himself. I worry particularly about Stanford Routt, Chris Johnson (who is listed as questionable for the game anyway), and safeties Tyvon Branch and Michael Huff. Both safeties have shown a tendency to get out of position, though Huff has looked pretty good for most of this season. If I were facing the Raiders, I would through nearly every pass against Routt. He makes some good plays, but not enough for my liking. Hopefully the Raiders can bring some pressure and disrupt the passing game, and our linebackers cover well. I think if we get beat, it will be in the air. It won't be against Nnamdi. My confidence level - OPTIMISTIC.
Passing tomorrow is looking shaky as well. Both Murphy and Heyward-Bey have injuries (Murphy - collarbone, Heyward-Bey - groin). We will probably see more Higgins tomorrow. But I still like what we've been doing, I believe Gradkowski should be able to find receivers, so it will be up to the line to provide protection for the passing game, and to continue to open lanes for the run. My confidence level - HIGH
The bottom line? Eliminate mistakes, have a good game against the pass, and the Raiders ought to pull an upset, and be 2-2 on Monday. My confidence level - GOOD
Photo Credits:
All photographs from The Oakland Raiders website
Nnamdi Asomugha photo from "2010 Week 3" photo collection
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