Important Game for the Raiders

Sunday, November 7th, 2010, the Oakland Raiders will play the most important game since their 2002 Super Bowl game against Tampa Bay.

There are three key elements that makes this game so important:

1. It is against the first place team in their division.
2. They will pull even in wins with KC if they win, or fall back two if they loose.
3. They will be 3-0 in division play with three remaining division games, and KC will have four left to play.

These are not the only important factors that contribute to the importance of this game, but they are what will establish the Raiders as a team that has to be reckoned with.  If they win this game the Raiders will be in solid contention for a playoff spot, and on a roll as they go into a badly needed bye week.

There are other meaningful reasons why this is such an important game:

1. From a pride standpoint, it will mark the first time since 2002 that they won three games in a row.
2. They will be over .500 for the first time since 2002 this far into the season.
3. They have attracted a stadium full of fans - the first sellout since Sept. 14, 2009.  Fan interest will soar - possibly even pushing them to sell out the rest of the home games.
4. They have been badgered as a team that is not very good against the run - they can prove otherwise.
5. They can believe - no - everyone can believe - that the Raiders have "turned the corner" and are now a really good football team.
6. They can prove that they have shed  the old "habit" of a looser.

It won't be easy.  Let's take a quick look at some of the challenges they will be facing:

1. KC is currently ranked as the number one rushing offense.
2. KC has TWO running backs that have over 500 yards.
3. Nnamdi Asomugha is unlikely to be able to play having suffered a bad ankle sprain last week.
4. Zach Miller suffered an ankle sprain as well, and could have problems if he is hit low again.
5. The Raiders will be without Louis Murphy who is still their top wide receiver this year after having missed last week's game.
6. KC has only three players listed on their Injury Report, none are reported as "out" for the game.
7. The weather may be bad - it's expected to rain throughout the day.

But there are some significant factors that point to a Raiders win Sunday:

1. The Raiders are 9th over all in defense - KC is 16th.
2. While KC is 1st in rushing offense, the Raiders are 2nd.
3. The Raiders are ranked poorly as a passing offense at 20th - but KC is dead last at 32nd
4. The Raiders pass defense is ranked 5th, while KC is ranked 23rd.
5. KC's run defense is in the 7th spot - but our running game didn't have a problem against San Diego's, ranked #2.
6. The Raiders defensive line has put terrific pressure on quarterbacks the past two games and dominated the line against the run as well.
7. KC's opponents have won 20 games (Raiders opponents have 27 wins), and the three best teams they've played have 13 wins between them - and KC lost two of those games (Indianapolis and Houston).

My interpretation of these facts is that the Raiders ought to win this match-up. 

KC's defense, while good against the run, will not stop the Raiders through all four quarters.   With a passing game that's going reasonably well, the Raiders ought to be able to throw against the Chiefs, and assuming the play action calls will continue, the running game will open up enough to get the job done.  I'm looking for the Raiders to get between 100 - 150 yards, and I believe Hugh Jackson's play calling will beat KC's defensive calls. 

Jason Campbell doesn't handle the pass rush very well, but that doesn't seem to be a great threat, as KC is ranked 19th in sacks.  The Raiders have managed pretty well against the Chargers (2nd), Seattle (8th), and the Rams (6th).  Only the Titans have really mauled the Raiders, and the 49ers pressured well.  If Jason does get pressured, and doesn't handle it well, look for Bruce Gradkowski to come off the bench again.

The Raiders have given up some big numbers on the ground, but when you look at, most of the big runners got close to half their yardage on one big play.  The past couple of weeks the Raiders have done pretty well closing the lanes, and bringing down the RB.  While I don't rule out a big play or two, I don't see the Raiders getting steamrolled on the ground. 

As for KC's passing game - it's not their strength.  Of course, I still don't feel the Raiders pass defense is our strength either, but I have to say, it's looked really good the past couple of weeks.  Routt has played pretty well, Branch has been solid, and Mike Mitchell has played really well.  Of all the games to have Asomugha out, assuming our defensive line continues to pressure as they've been doing . . .

I think they will handle KC and win.

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Photo Credits - in order displayed:
All photos from the Oakland Raiders website "2010 Week 8" photo collection
Photos by Tony Gonzales

1. LB Rolando McClain tackles Seahawks RB Justin Forsett.
2. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey uses his speed to break away from the defense and run the ball in for a touchdown, while his teammates cheer on the sideline.
3. FB Marcel Reece breaks for the end zone.
4. RB Michael Bush breaks off a 30-yard run.
5. QB Jason Campbell gets ready to throw as G Robert Gallery holds off the defender.
6. Oakland Raiders Raiders Head Coach Tom Cable speaks to the team after a dominant 33-3 win over the Seahawks. 

Bring on Seattle

Sunday's win against the Denver Bronco's was the kind of game Tom Cable has talked about for just about as long as he's been with the Raiders - all three phases of the game played well. It's scary how good they were.

On offense, the run blocking was amazing. I've watched the game four times now (and loved every minute each time!), and slowed nearly every offensive play, and many of the defensive plays, and the run blocking was executed like it was drawn up on the board.

I loved the way the Raiders ran the ball (I bet you did too!). The total control on the ground made the air game better. Just having Darren McFadden's threat was enough to draw the attention of the Denver linebackers right away, as they moved up to the line, and never saw Miller slip behind them for a wide open reception and touchdown with just 4:16 off the clock in the game.

The good news with that play was that Campbell found him, and got the ball there, though the throw was not a particularly good throw.

With three receivers that had over 30 receptions, the Raiders defensive backs could have had a tough day. The best way to help the backs out is to make sure the quarterback doesn't have time, and the pressure from the Raiders defense was outstanding. With four sacks on the day, the Raiders often had Orton under pressure and hurrying his throws.

Chris Johnson and Stanford Routt both had the best days I've seen from them in a long time. I attribute that to the pressure on the quarterback. Without giving the quarterback all day, they both proved they can provide cover. Johnson's interception for the TD on the Bronco's first play was a beauty!

Tomorrow the Seattle Seahawks come to town. We beat them in the preseason, but that really meant nothing. Neither team had very many starters on the field that game, but it was Bruce Gradkowski who started that game, and put away the Seahawks early.

With a 4-2 record the Seahawks look, at face value, like they are doing pretty well. But their play seems to have been pretty inconsistent. The smoked the 49ers in week one 31-6, then GOT smoked 33-14 by the Broncos.

The next week they bounce back and take down the Chargers 27-20, winning the game on a kickoff return with just under seven minutes left in the game. That win was followed by a loss to the Rams - another thumping, 27-3.

A review of the team stats, and having seen parts of their games this season lead me to believe this is a game that the Raiders ought to win. They don't have the same ground threat as the Raiders, and Hasselbeck is not rated any better than Campbell, and their stats look about the same.

Their receivers have better stats than the Raiders, who still struggle to find them with any regularity. The Seahawks Mike Williams is their top receiver with 32 catches for 348 yards, but he is likely to be covered by Asomugha, and ought not to have a big game.

So, like last week, I believe this game will come down to putting pressure on the Quarterback so that Johnson and Routt don't have to cover too long, and the Raiders offensive line providing the protection on the passing game, and continuing to open lanes for the running game.

I really like the Raiders chances of winning this game at home, getting to .500 with a 4-4 record, and setting the tone for week 9, when the Kansas City Chiefs come to town.

All they need to do is to play solid football.

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Photo Credits - in order displayed:
All photographs from The Oakland Raiders website "2010 Week 7" photo collection
Photos by Tony Gonzales

1. Head Coach Tom Cable congratulates TE Zach Miller as he runs off the field. Photo by Tony Gonzales.
2. TE Zach Miller is wide open for the catch. Photo by Tony Gonzales.
3. DT Desmond Bryant lunges for Broncos QB Kyle Orton as he attempts a pass. Photo by Tony Gonzales.
4. RB Darren McFadden leaps through the chaos for a touchdown. Photo by Tony Gonzales.

Broken Record

I feel a bit like a broken record.  The key area's the Raiders need to improve on is pass defense, and pass protection.  I feel they have proven they can defend the run, but the defense has to be able to get off the field for a rest. 

The horrid string of 3 plays and out that the offense displayed last week against the 49ers is just inexcusable (5 in a row, and 7 out of 8 to finish the game).  Tom Cable said as much, and seemed to point the finger at Campbell.  "We left plays out there.  All we needed to do was to execute."

I agree with that assessment, but the offensive line MUST provide better protection - especially for Campbell it appears.

Chris Johnson, and Stanford Routt on defense - a constant weakness.  Combine that with Tyvon Branch occasional gaff's at safety, and you've got to worry about taking on a Bronco's team that have three receivers with over 30 catches each.

With the perfect opportunity, the Raiders couldn't get two wins in a row.  Can they put away Denver?  I think so.  A lot has to happen well for them. 

Maybe the Raiders can get two division wins in a row.  That would be a huge win. 

Go Raiders!

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Make it Two!

Last Sunday's game was a paradigm changer for the Raiders.  Instead of finding a way to loose the game as they had done the previous two weeks against the Texans and the Cardinals, the Raiders found a way to win it.

It was close.

Campbell had taken the offense down for the big 7, and the lead.  He did what he needed to do with the drive.  Starting at their own 27 yard line and with 12:00 minutes remaining on the clock, Campbell lead the team in a 14 play, 73 yard scoring drive that took 8:21 off the clock.

Still, there was 3:33 left in the game when the Chargers took their first play from the line of scrimmage. 

It had been an amazing game.  The Raiders had come off the bench in the first quarter and just smashed the Chargers, taking a 12 point lead on back-to-back blocked punts with BOTH blocks resulting in points - 9 in all - on a safety and a touchdown.  Janikowski added three points in between the Charger possessions.  And when the Chargers marched down the field on their next drive, it looked like they would punch it in from the one yard line . . . FUMBLE!  And the Raiders get the ball back with only 2:38 left in the first quarter.

Throughout the game the lead changed hands five times.  And then at the end of the game, that 3:33 seemed like an awful long time.  The Raiders had given up a lot of yards, and it was far from a sure thing.  I'll bet a lot of people in that stadium and at home listening or watching the game were thinking the same thing I was . . . find a way to stop them.  You've GOT to stop them. In the back of your mind . . . Ohhh noooo.

And then . . .  the Chargers took the kickoff from 4 yards deep in their end-zone to their 28 yard line.  Not good.  A 14 yard scramble.  A 13 yard pass.  A couple of stops, some short gains, and then . . . Oh man!  A pass interference call on Chris Johnson, and the Chargers are at the Raiders 23.  Looks like they have found a way to loose another game.  Can't stop them.

Suddenly in this game, the Raiders discover the blitz - the pass rush - and they put pressure on Rivers.  A holding call on San Diego.  More pressure and an incomplete pass.  Then the fumble, and return for a touchdown. 

STILL, the Chargers had the ball with 58 seconds on the clock.  It hadn't taken much longer than that for them to threaten on their last drive.  A two point conversion would still put the game into overtime, and an uncertain outcome.

But it didn't happen.  The Raiders had found a way to win, and on that very last drive they had held.

Two and Three. 

Now the challenge is to win two in a row.  The 49ers are not that different from the Raiders this year.  At 0-5, they were blown out twice, but were within one score to win in the other three.

Cable and Jackson both expect to see a lot of pressure come from an aggressive 49er defense.  That's what I would do.  The Raiders have struggled with their pass protection all season, and especially on the left side.  The coaches have not fixed that problem.

Alex Smith can complete passes.  He has passed for an average of 246 yards per game, with only one game under 200 yards (188 against Atlanta), and he has thrown 6 touchdowns this season.  Interceptions and fumbles have been his achilles heel. 

We know what the Raiders have to do.  Defense has to stop the run.  They are capable of doing that.  I am still mostly concerned about the pass defense.  I've said it before - I would go at Stanford Routt all day.  Chris Johnson is another worry, as he is having perhaps his worst season as a Raider.  Both players are often way off the receiver, or are one to two steps off.  They will make a few plays, but on the whole, I believe they are our greatest weakness. 

And without a pass rush and more blitzing, we just give the quarterback and receivers too much time to get open. 

Offensively, the Raiders number one job has to be pass protection.  They can help the line by running the ball, which has been pretty effective. 

But put all the stats aside.  Put all the talk about rivalry, and what part of the game you need to shut down.  Put aside the need to cut down on penalties.

The Raiders need a win. 

It's been since the 2002 season that the Raiders have put two regular season wins together.  So none of that other stuff really matters.

Just . . . make it two!

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Photo Credits in order of appearance:

1. Photo by Paul Sheirich. Scoreboard Final Score.
2. Photo from The Oakland Raiders website. Photo by Tony Gonzales.  S Hiram Eugene celebrates his touchdown off of a blocked punt by Brandon Myers
3. Photo by Paul Sheirich.  Fans celebrate extra point - Raiders lead 35-27
4. Photo from The Oakland Raiders website.  Photo by Tony Gonzales.  The team comes together before kickoff.