Important Game for the Raiders

Sunday, November 7th, 2010, the Oakland Raiders will play the most important game since their 2002 Super Bowl game against Tampa Bay.

There are three key elements that makes this game so important:

1. It is against the first place team in their division.
2. They will pull even in wins with KC if they win, or fall back two if they loose.
3. They will be 3-0 in division play with three remaining division games, and KC will have four left to play.

These are not the only important factors that contribute to the importance of this game, but they are what will establish the Raiders as a team that has to be reckoned with.  If they win this game the Raiders will be in solid contention for a playoff spot, and on a roll as they go into a badly needed bye week.

There are other meaningful reasons why this is such an important game:

1. From a pride standpoint, it will mark the first time since 2002 that they won three games in a row.
2. They will be over .500 for the first time since 2002 this far into the season.
3. They have attracted a stadium full of fans - the first sellout since Sept. 14, 2009.  Fan interest will soar - possibly even pushing them to sell out the rest of the home games.
4. They have been badgered as a team that is not very good against the run - they can prove otherwise.
5. They can believe - no - everyone can believe - that the Raiders have "turned the corner" and are now a really good football team.
6. They can prove that they have shed  the old "habit" of a looser.

It won't be easy.  Let's take a quick look at some of the challenges they will be facing:

1. KC is currently ranked as the number one rushing offense.
2. KC has TWO running backs that have over 500 yards.
3. Nnamdi Asomugha is unlikely to be able to play having suffered a bad ankle sprain last week.
4. Zach Miller suffered an ankle sprain as well, and could have problems if he is hit low again.
5. The Raiders will be without Louis Murphy who is still their top wide receiver this year after having missed last week's game.
6. KC has only three players listed on their Injury Report, none are reported as "out" for the game.
7. The weather may be bad - it's expected to rain throughout the day.

But there are some significant factors that point to a Raiders win Sunday:

1. The Raiders are 9th over all in defense - KC is 16th.
2. While KC is 1st in rushing offense, the Raiders are 2nd.
3. The Raiders are ranked poorly as a passing offense at 20th - but KC is dead last at 32nd
4. The Raiders pass defense is ranked 5th, while KC is ranked 23rd.
5. KC's run defense is in the 7th spot - but our running game didn't have a problem against San Diego's, ranked #2.
6. The Raiders defensive line has put terrific pressure on quarterbacks the past two games and dominated the line against the run as well.
7. KC's opponents have won 20 games (Raiders opponents have 27 wins), and the three best teams they've played have 13 wins between them - and KC lost two of those games (Indianapolis and Houston).

My interpretation of these facts is that the Raiders ought to win this match-up. 

KC's defense, while good against the run, will not stop the Raiders through all four quarters.   With a passing game that's going reasonably well, the Raiders ought to be able to throw against the Chiefs, and assuming the play action calls will continue, the running game will open up enough to get the job done.  I'm looking for the Raiders to get between 100 - 150 yards, and I believe Hugh Jackson's play calling will beat KC's defensive calls. 

Jason Campbell doesn't handle the pass rush very well, but that doesn't seem to be a great threat, as KC is ranked 19th in sacks.  The Raiders have managed pretty well against the Chargers (2nd), Seattle (8th), and the Rams (6th).  Only the Titans have really mauled the Raiders, and the 49ers pressured well.  If Jason does get pressured, and doesn't handle it well, look for Bruce Gradkowski to come off the bench again.

The Raiders have given up some big numbers on the ground, but when you look at, most of the big runners got close to half their yardage on one big play.  The past couple of weeks the Raiders have done pretty well closing the lanes, and bringing down the RB.  While I don't rule out a big play or two, I don't see the Raiders getting steamrolled on the ground. 

As for KC's passing game - it's not their strength.  Of course, I still don't feel the Raiders pass defense is our strength either, but I have to say, it's looked really good the past couple of weeks.  Routt has played pretty well, Branch has been solid, and Mike Mitchell has played really well.  Of all the games to have Asomugha out, assuming our defensive line continues to pressure as they've been doing . . .

I think they will handle KC and win.

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Photo Credits - in order displayed:
All photos from the Oakland Raiders website "2010 Week 8" photo collection
Photos by Tony Gonzales

1. LB Rolando McClain tackles Seahawks RB Justin Forsett.
2. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey uses his speed to break away from the defense and run the ball in for a touchdown, while his teammates cheer on the sideline.
3. FB Marcel Reece breaks for the end zone.
4. RB Michael Bush breaks off a 30-yard run.
5. QB Jason Campbell gets ready to throw as G Robert Gallery holds off the defender.
6. Oakland Raiders Raiders Head Coach Tom Cable speaks to the team after a dominant 33-3 win over the Seahawks.