Saturday, November 27, 2010

The goal is to reach 6-5

Miami comes to Oakland this Sunday. With both teams at 5-5, it appears they are evenly matched. With Quarterback injuries at Miami, the speculation was that we might face Tyler Thigpen, but the Dolphins list Chad Henne as starting on Sunday.

Henne's not killing the league, not by a long shot, but then, neither are the Raiders quarterbacks. the Dolphins are currently rated 16th overall in the passing game, while the Raiders rank 29th.

Pressure on Henne will continue to be the key in this game for the Raiders defense. Coming off a knee injury, he is likely to be a bit less mobile than he might be otherwise.

The Dolphins have only given up 19 total sacks this year though, and they've faced Tennessee, New England, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, all of whom can bring a lot of defensive pressure. It's likely their offensive line will be highly protective of their quarterback, and that can be trouble for the Raiders who can cover well as long as the opponent quarterback doesn't have a lot of time to find their receivers.

Namdi Asomugha is expected to be back on the field, but I suspect his ankle will not be at 100%. The good news there is that Brandon Marshall (Dolphins leading receiver) is not flying to Oakland. He is out with a hamstring problem.

The Dolphins have been known the past couple of years, since head coach Tony Sparano arrived, for using the wildcat formation. This year however, it's been more of a passing attack. Sparano has noted that he went to the wildcat because his best players were Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and the wildcat allowed them to get both players on the field and into the action. However, Sparano feels that Davone Bess and Brian Hartline have developed into solid receivers, and the trade for Brandon Marshall meant they could open up the passing game, and move away from the wildcat.

This year the Dolphins have passed 55% of the time, and completed about 63% of those.

I would not be surprised to see the Dolphins bring out the running game on Sunday, and for the wildcat to make a reappearance.  Teams continue to think they can run on the Raiders, and with the injury to Henne, they may want to take some heat off him.

Miami's running game is no-where near the Raiders, even with the poor showing against Pittsburgh last week. Both featured running backs for the Raiders have out gained their Dolphin counterparts, and considering the Dolphins defense is 20th against the run, and 4th against the pass, you should expect the ground game to be a top feature for the Raiders on Sunday. 

Darren McFadden has been amazing this season. Last week was not a reasonable measure. As Tom Cable said on Monday, McFadden's yardage stats were in large part due to the fact that he only carried the ball 10 times!

I thought the Raiders use of McFadden last week was one of the weaknesses in the game. The responsibility for that lies with Hue Jackson. He tried to run McFadden inside because the Steelers are so good defending the run outside. It was just sad to see the Raiders give away that part of the game so easily. I take that to mean Jackson couldn't figure out how to get it done with the players he had, so when it didn't work, he gave up.

Of course, once you get 21 points behind, it's kind of hard to tryout your running game, but against the Steelers, that didn't happen until the third quarter. Giving up on the running game for Oakland means you put the game result into the hands of the quarterback - in this case Jason Campbell. He confirmed my opinion of him Sunday, and that is his inability to handle line pressure.

Miami WILL blitz and pressure. They have 29 sacks this year - the Raiders have 29 as well.
So, the Raiders go into the game on Sunday with a quarterback controversy, like it or not. Most folks saw the same thing as I did when Gradkowski came in - quick decisions, snappy passes, dealt better with the pressure, moved the team. Unfortunately he made a horrible pass that killed his first drive inside the red zone as his pass got picked off.

Coach Cable came right out after the game on Sunday, and again on Monday to say Campbell is his starting quarterback . . . even going so far as to say that there was no difference when Gradkowski came in . . .

I don't agree, and am confounded by that statement.

Reports this week from "unnamed sources" said that Gradkowski took most of the snaps this week with the first team offense. That would indicated that he would be the starting quarterback.

Ah, the suspense!

Bottom line on Sunday?

I think it will likely be a tough game. Miami is a good team, having faced teams with 58 wins, to the Raiders who have faced teams with a collective 45 wins. Miami's 5-5 record comes against some very tough opponents.

Defensively, the Raiders will need to continue to pressure the quarterback, and reduce the time Henne has to find receivers and make good throws. I am confident the Raiders will defend the run successfully.

On offense, the running game will is the crucial key to winning the game. Run well, control the clock, and open the passing game. Football 101. McFadden looks to me like the second coming of Marcus Allen. If the Raiders give up on the run, or fail to block effectively, it will likely be a tough day for the offense to score with Jason Campbell carrying the responsibility to win the game.

Can the Raiders do it?

Absolutely.

Photo Credits - in order displayed:
All photos from the Oakland Raiders website "2010 Week 11" photo collection
Photos by Tony Gonzales
  1. DT John Henderson pressures the Steelers quarterback.
  2. RB Michael Bush tries to make a move around the Steelers defense. 
  3. K Sebastian Janikowski kicks a field goal out of the hold of P Shane Lechler.

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